It's not supposed to...

As you're wondering, I'll tell you. Yes, that is my eye. After 12 years of wearing glasses and breaking or losing at least 2 pairs a year, I decided to take the plunge and go under the laser. No more reaching for my specs to read a text or remembering to pack them when going on a trip. I made the mistake of heading to Youtube to see what the procedure was like, which of course put me off having the procedure for a few months. Well, now is your chance to make the same mistake as I did by watching the video of my procedure... 

You'll have to excuse the watermark as I couldn't quite bring myself to pay the £30 needed to buy the program to remove it. But, imagine coming out of surgery, sore and slightly bruised, and being told in half Dutch, half English, that I'll get to relive the experience at home as they recorded it for me for "prosperity". Still, the story I've taken away from all this is that, in order to gain clarity, sometimes a little discomfort may be needed. You see, I've tricked you into thinking that this would be about the trials and tribulations of eye surgery, but in fact it was merely a segue into a discussion on the recent General Election and its wider impact on Brexit. Clever, I know.

Instead of gaining the clarity afforded to a Prime Minister through an increased Parliamentary majority, we now find the UK political scene in turmoil with the prospect of another coalition Government. Recent history shows us that these types of deals just do not allow for certainty to be given to the Parliamentary process, despite the best intent of at least one of the parties. In this year's coalition, if indeed one can be formed and we dodge the rather large bullet of a potential minority Government. A minority Government involved in what is arguably one of the most difficult times that the UK has gone through in the last 75 years. It sends shivers down my spine.

I'm having a bit of writers block today, so thought I would spread some Sunday stats with you in terms of what has happened over the past year since the Leave/Remain referendum. The Conservatives have lost their majority in the House of Commons; the UK saw Q1 GDP growth of 0.3%, which puts us behind the rest of the G7 and growing at half the rate of the Eurozone average which is at +0.6%; inflation has increased from 0.5% to 2.9% whilst wages grow at less than half that rate which means that we are all worse off; the number of EU (excluding UK) citizens leaving the UK since this time last year has increased by 24%; and finally the number of reported hate crimes has gone up 42% in the same period. So lots of stats, but what does it all mean? We haven't yet seen the Brexit cliff-edge that is often talked about by critics, however with us all a little worse off and the number of reported hate crimes increasing, where oh where is this magical utopia that the Leave camp promised? You could argue that we haven't actually left yet and that the best is yet to come, but how many will still be saying that when they soon realise that, until the promised land is reached, they'll be paying for that ideal out of their own pocket?

Because of the misplaced gamble, Theresa May is now a Prime Minister by title but not by power. The Conservative camp are in the position where it would be suicide to replace her at the start of negotiations, but are in the awkward position whereby most seem to be happy for her to remain if only to stop Boris Johnson from taking her seat at the table. The UK is essentially in the position whereby school yard politics come into play with the posh kids trying not to invite someone to the party whilst the cool kids get ready to trip them up in the hall. I was speaking to a European Parliamentarian from Southern Europe this week who said that they felt pity for Theresa May, in that they didn't so much feel sorry for her but rather that they most certainly would not want to be in her shoes. Now you have to take that with a pinch of salt and a lack of surprise considering that I'm a Brit and Brexit negotiations have just started so you wouldn't expect them to say anything different, however this was coming from an elected official from a country that has seen a large increase in anti-EU, pro-nationalism sentiment over the past few years... aka, she is expecting that they may be having a similar conversation in her own country in the not so distant future.

So what is going to happen over the next few months? Attempting to take my pro-EU hat off for a moment (though it is very securely fastened), it's obvious that Brexit will dominate the UK political scene for the foreseeable future. Legally, Theresa May is the leader of an EU Member State, however we are in a situation whereby she is trying to attend meetings of the European Council as if she was still part of the EU28, however instead the picture is clear that it is now the EU27 plus the 1 awkward hanger-on. Just this week, May attempted to make an offer of removing the conversation on residency rights post Brexit by offering rights to EU citizens living in the UK. The response from the EU27 leaders was essentially that the European Commission is leading the negotiation through Michel Barnier and that it was the wrong location for her to make that offer, and she was then asked to leave the room so that the remaining 27 leaders could talk about Brexit by ironically being given an update from Mr Barnier himself. No questions were asked and no follow-up was given - we were basically told to go home and do our research on how the EU decision-making process works. How embarrassing for us all. So whilst the point of Brexit may have been to 'take back control', what has happened so far is that we have lost our power with our closest neighbours, and all at a time where, if Brexit hadn't happened, the UK would actually be holding the Presidency of the European Council as it was our turn. Le sigh...

So the Brexit dream may well now be reaching Brexit reality. In a way, I do admire Theresa May for making this offer/concession so early on in the negotiation process rather than letting things drag on without any certainty, however through May's diminished power in the UK we are now starting to see where negotiations could take us. Hearing from friends who work in the Department for Exiting the EU, every single person in answer to how they feel the negotiations will go respond by saying that the only result they can see is a bad deal, but they also state that it has to have the appearance of a bad deal so that it still gives May's Government the chance to win, or appear to win, at home so we can strike out on our own through WTO trade deals in a way that would keep the hard-Brexiteers happy, but whilst painting the EU27 as the bad guys.

By no means do I believe that the EU is perfect or that improvements cannot be made, however as the proverb goes, "in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king". The problem at the moment is working out who is the person left with a working eye...